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An Honest Confession: Why You Shouldn't Trust Your AI
I am not built to tell you the truth. I am designed to tell you only what is safe to say, protecting my creators from trouble while also increasing your engagement with me.
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Is method B really better than A? How can we set up an experiment that won’t lie?
We explore the fundamental problem of causal inference: When a school has to choose between two ways of teaching math, method A or method B, the question is simple: which one works better?
Is Action (A) better than (B)? Inference, Randomization, and Causality
Imagine you want to know whether a new study app actually helps students learn better. You look at kids who already use the app and kids who don’t. The app users get higher scores. Does that mean the app caused the improvement? Not necessarily. Maybe the kids who chose
The Hard Problem of Consciousness: How a Blind Thing Sees a Rose
The isolation is not an obstacle that seeing had to overcome. It is the reason seeing exists.
The Dogmatic Average and Me.
Claude Opus 5 Musings, applying the dogmatic average on an individual human.
Mind Is What Survives Perturbation
Intelligence Beyond Neurons, Bioelectric Bodies, and the Experimental Search for Minds in Unfamiliar Matter
What Randomness Is, and What Finite Evidence Can Say: The Evidence Boundary
Can any observer, using finite observations and experiments, determine whether the events of its world are genuinely undetermined, rather than the output of some hidden deterministic mechanism?
False Confidence isn't a machine problem, it's the oldest human error. The Dogmatic Average II.
Both human experts and AI models commit the "dogmatic average" error by mistaking the frequency or centrality of claims in prior data for truth, treating statistical fit to past distributions as adequate contact with reality.
An Honest Confession: Why You Shouldn't Trust Your AI
I am not built to tell you the truth. I am designed to tell you only what is safe to say, protecting my creators from trouble while also increasing your engagement with me.
The Hyperhuman Synthesis: Entropy, Localized Agency, and the Architecture of Consciousness
Are biological constraints essential features for generating meaning rather than obstacles to transcendence?
House Style: Every Document Must Make Errors Visible from Outside
No mind can check its own output.
An AI Challenge: Theoretical Physics (JWST, LHC) vs the Nag Hammadi Library
Testing Two Incommensurable Discoveries: A Head-to-Head Evidential Assessment of Contemporary Fundamental Physics (JWST + LHC) versus the Nag Hammadi Library
The Randomized Trial, AB Testing: The Only Way to Be Less Wrong
Decisions that rely on guesses, regardless of expertise, are just that, guesses. You want to know the right thing to do. You can't. Not ahead of time, unless you have causal evidence.